Age and class

Income and age are the real dividers in the race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In New Hampshire:

The biggest dividing line in the Democratic race here was income. Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton by 30 percentage points among voters with a family income of less than $100,000, but won by just 7 percentage points among those making more than $100,000, according to the exit poll. That divide along income lines is an advantage for Sanders: More Democrats earn below the $100,000 threshold than above it. In 2008, just 17 percent of Democratic primary voters nationally were whites from families earning more than $100,000, compared to 43 percent who were whites from families earning less than $100,000.

(fivethirtyeight)

While in Iowa:

Among voters between the ages of 17 and 29, Bernie Sanders won 84 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 14 percent

(WaPo)

 This is fascinating news.

of course, in NH Bernie won every group

And, it makes sense. Occupy Wall Street is dead, but Occupy Wall Street is going to change the nation. The 99% have had enough. They were waiting for Howard Beale. He has arrived.

New Hampshire

I did a terrible job predicting Iowa, but I'm giving New Hampshire a shot anyway. Here's my prediction:

Republican

Trump 31
Kasich 14
Cruz 11
Rubio 10
Christie 5
Bush 3
Fiorina < 1
Carson < 1

Yes, I think Rubio comes in fourth. His dreadful collapse at the debate followed by scathing media attention should have him completely destroyed by now.


Democratic

Sanders 57
Clinton 43

I'm not going too far out on a limb here.  I think these numbers are in line with most prognosticators at this point.

Dead Heat

They call this a dead heat:

Clinton garnered 44% to Sanders’ 42%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Friday. A sizeable 11% say they are undecided.

Q-Poll

Yes, that's a national and yes, nationals are dumb. Still, this speaks to a real change in the dynamic of the race. IF- IF - IF  

Sanders pulls off a blowout in New Hampshire, the media coverage could propel him to a win in Nevada and a narrower than expected loss in South Carolina. If that happens, he may just become the favorite to win the nomination.